This trend of lek appreciation began in 2023 and has continued into 2025, albeit at a slower pace. The currency's strength is attributed to several factors:
- Tourism boom: Record inflows from tourism have significantly improved Albania's balance of payments.
- Positive current account: For the first time in its history, Albania recorded a positive current account balance in 2023.
- Restrictive fiscal policy: The Albanian government's tight fiscal stance has contributed to the lek's strength.
- Foreign investment: Increased remittances and foreign direct investment have boosted demand for the lek.
This slowdown is partly attributed to:
- Reduced pace of employment growth due to emigration and population decline.
- Expected deceleration in tourist growth.
- Potential negative impact on exports due to the strong currency.
However, the central bank retains the right to intervene to avoid disruptions or adjust foreign currency reserves if necessary.
As Albania continues its EU accession process, the stability and strength of its currency play a crucial role in its economic narrative. While the strong lek has helped keep inflation relatively low compared to regional peers, it has also raised concerns among exporters about competitiveness.
Looking ahead, analysts predict a relatively stable exchange rate in the early months of 2025, with potential for further lek appreciation starting from the second quarter, driven by expected increases in tourism revenues and possible monetary policy adjustments.
